The NFL MVP watch is a running list of the top candidates for the National Football League’s Most Valuable Player award, which is given to the most outstanding player in each season.
The NFL MVP watch 2021 is a website that allows users to see the odds of who will be the NFL MVP in 2021.
Five weeks into the 2021 season, the NFL’s Most Valuable Player race is beginning to take shape, with a slew of quarterbacks making the short list of MVP contenders. The coach of the league’s only unbeaten club is tied for the highest Vegas odds and, predictably, gets the most first-place votes from our panel. Those vying for the top position have another 13 weeks to prove themselves.
Stephania Bell, Matt Bowen, Mike Clay, Courtney Cronin, Jeremy Fowler, Domonique Foxworth, Kevin Seifert, Field Yates, and Seth Walder were asked to vote on the top players in the MVP race right now by a panel of experts. Then, using Heisman Trophy-style scaling for each rating, we determined how the field stacks up to this point utilizing those nine sets of rankings to provide our top five contenders overall.
We’ll also take a look at a couple players whose MVP prospects have risen or fallen in the early going. Finally, ESPN statistics writer Seth Walder discusses an under-the-radar MVP candidate, while ESPN Chalk analyst Doug Kezirian names his best MVP value bet through five weeks. But first, let’s take a look at the guys who are off to an MVP-worthy start.
All odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.
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1,512 passing yards, 110 running yards, 13 total touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 68.4 total QBR in 2021
Murray’s fast passes and ability to escape the pocket have made life tough for opposing defenders, and it’s paid off for the Cardinals, who are off to their best 5-0 start since 1974. Murray’s MVP candidacy has been boosted by his being just the third player in NFL history to throw for 1,500 yards and a 75% completion rate in the first five games of a season, on top of leading the Cardinals to the top of the NFC West.
The Arizona quarterback may be the favorite heading into Week 6, but he’ll have to bring his team back to its early-season form following an uninspiring victory against San Francisco in which they failed to hit 30 points or 400 yards for the first time all season. Murray is now the co-favorite to win MVP, with odds of +500.
1,576 passing yards, 14 total touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and a 66.1 total QBR in 2021.
The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year was a key part of the Chargers’ 47-42 victory against Cleveland, in which they scored 26 points in the fourth quarter. In his second season, Herbert has been particularly impressive late in games. Herbert’s QBR in the fourth quarter and overtime has increased by more than 30 points since his rookie season, according to ESPN Stats & Information, and he has already thrown more touchdowns in such circumstances while averaging almost three more yards per passing attempt. His 89.3 QBR in the fourth quarter/overtime tops all quarterbacks this season.
After guiding their teams to significant victories in Week 5, Herbert and Lamar Jackson will square off on Sunday in a game that will almost definitely affect how this ranking appears in a few weeks. Herbert now has +700 odds to win MVP, which puts him in a tie for fourth place.
2021 stats: 1,370 passing yards, 188 running yards, 14 total touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and a total passer rating of 65.3.
After a defeat to Pittsburgh in the opening, Allen has Buffalo on a four-game winning run, reversing the narrative of his decline. In a highly anticipated prime-time rematch of the 2020 AFC Championship, the quarterback enthralled the NFL by passing for 315 yards (on 15 completions) and three touchdowns while running for 59 yards and another score in a victory against the Chiefs on Sunday night. Allen had 300 passing yards and 50 running yards for the third time in his career, tying him for fourth most in NFL history.
Allen will likely remain cruising as a strong contender for MVP honors if Buffalo can take advantage of its next run against Tennessee, Miami, and Jacksonville. He’s now +500, tying Murray for first place on the board.
2021 stats: 1,767 passing yards, 16 total touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and a total passer rating of 65.6.
The 44-year-old quarterback continues to do MVP-like things on a weekly basis — he’s +600 to win his fourth trophy — and he’s added another accomplishment to his long list. Brady threw for 400 yards and five touchdowns for the first time in his career in a 45-17 victory against the Dolphins. Since Brady, who leads the league in passing yards (1,767) and completions (149) this season, took over in 2020, Tampa Bay has scored at least 44 points six times.
Brady’s 353.4 passing yards per game puts him on track to become the first quarterback to throw for over 6,000 yards in a season, thanks to one extra game this season. He’s also on track to set a new career high in touchdowns with 51, which would be just the second time he’s done so.
1 386 passing yards, 13 total touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 56.6 total QBR in 2021
Dallas is 4-1 for the first time since Prescott’s debut season in 2016 and has established itself as a top NFC club. The quarterback is surrounded by a plethora of great players, which has enabled the Cowboys to deploy an explosive, diverse offense and score 170 points in four games. Prescott has thrown three touchdown passes four times this season, the most recent of which came in a 44-20 win against NFC East rival Giants. He’s a big reason why Dallas is on fire, with a completion rate of 73.9 percent, a tie for third in passing touchdowns (13) and a 10th-place finish in passing yards (1,386).
Prescott is not only a front-runner for the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year award after missing most of the 2020 season due to a serious ankle injury, but he’s also in the middle of an MVP race (+700) packed with great quarterback performances.
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson
Jackson’s valiant efforts against Indianapolis almost propelled him into the top five. In his third year as a starting quarterback, the 2019 NFL MVP has spent the first five weeks of the season debunking any notions about his development and limits. Jackson overcome his biggest deficit of his NFL career (19 points) in Week 5 against the Colts, setting the NFL record for completion percentage (86 percent) in both 400-yard and 40-pass-attempt games. Jackson is demonstrating that he can play from behind and win, in addition to being a great passer. Jackson had to come back from a double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter for the second time since Week 2 against Indianapolis, winning 31-25 in overtime. His previous game saw him defeat defending Super Bowl winner Kansas City 36-35.
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Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford
Stafford never came close to earning the MVP in his 12 years with the Lions, but he’s making a case for it now that the Rams are off to a 4-1 start. Through the first five games of the season, he has the highest completion percentage (68 percent), yards per attempt (9.2), and yards per completion (13.6, tied for first in the NFL), and he has the best TD-INT ratio (12-3) of his career. Given how perfectly everything else is built around him, including the offensive line, his receivers, and his fit in this system, it’s too early to declare Stafford the Rams’ savior, but Stafford’s performance puts Los Angeles firmly in the discussion as early-season Super Bowl candidates.
Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers
After starting the season with one of his worst performances of his career, the reigning MVP soon regained his form. Rodgers’ MVP-level performance in Week 3 reminded everyone why he’s one of the best to ever do it. A blowout victory against Detroit definitely helped him get the naysayers off his back, but it was his MVP-level performance in Week 3 that reminded everyone why he’s one of the best to ever do it. The 49ers let the Packers’ quarterback 37 seconds to drive down the field and put them in position for a walk-off win. Rodgers passed Philip Rivers for fifth place in all-time throwing touchdowns with 422, thanks to two touchdowns he tossed against Cincinnati in Week 5.
QB Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs, Titans RB Derrick Henry, Rams DT Aaron Donald, Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs, Packers WR Davante Adams, Browns DE Myles Garrett, and Raiders QB Derek Carr also earned top-10 votes.
Dallas Cowboys cornerback Trevon Diggs
Diggs has had perhaps the best start to the season of any defensive player, with six interceptions to no one else’s six. The 23-year-old cornerback has at least one interception in each of his team’s first five games since the NFL merger, and he’s helping to turn around Dallas’ defense a year after it set a club mark for points allowed.
Cleveland Browns’ Myles Garrett, DE
Garrett leads the NFL in sacks (7.0) and is gaining ground on Rams defensive end Aaron Donald, who has won Defensive Player of the Year three times in the last four seasons. With 4.5 sacks of Chicago quarterback Justin Fields, the Browns’ edge rusher has entered the MVP conversation and is tied for second in total pressures with 30.
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Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes
The Chiefs are off to a 1-3 start, which puts them in uncharted terrain. Kansas City is not favored to win the Super Bowl for the first time since the 2019 divisional playoffs. And it is not the favorite in the AFC West for the first time since Week 1 of 2018. The Chiefs’ defense continues to be their Achilles’ heel, but in each of Kansas City’s three defeats, Herbert, Jackson, and Allen have outshined Mahomes. It doesn’t help that the great quarterback has thrown six interceptions in five games, which is more than he tossed in the whole previous season.
Dallas Cowboys cornerback Trevon Diggs
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Dallas defense has accumulated 29 total EPA on plays when opponents have targeted Diggs as the closest defender, which is 31 EPA more than the average for an outside corner this season. Let’s take a look at quarterback performance. Only five quarterbacks had 31 EPA above average for the position when offensive EPA was combined on plays when a quarterback dropped back to throw or carried the ball. Furthermore, finding a QB with that type of EPA output is far simpler than finding a corner, and the uniqueness of Diggs’ performance at his position enhances its worth. Diggs is a top-10 lock because of this.
MVP value bet by Kezirian
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford
This is a very competitive race right now, and single-digit odds in a one-way betting market are difficult to explain. However, I think the Rams have set themselves up nicely to finish first in the NFC, thus Stafford, at +1100, is the best value on the board.
The nfl mvp 2019 is a website that provides an overview of the NFL MVP race. It will be updated every year until 2021.
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